2025 Season Forecast
County-Level Corn Yield Predictions
XGBoost model trained on 20 years of USDA NASS, gridMET climate, NASA HLS satellite imagery, USDA Drought Monitor, and gSSURGO soils — issued 4–8 weeks before USDA official estimates.
263
Counties forecast
5
States covered
170 bu/ac
5-state avg
4–8 wks
Lead time
2025 State Yield Forecasts
XGBoost county-level aggregated · vs USDA 2024 actual
184bu/ac
USDA 2024: 211
XGB 184 · KNN 183
Top county: Ida, IA
197 bu/ac predicted
73 counties · 3 rising
175bu/ac
USDA 2024: 184
XGB 178 · KNN 172
Top county: Phelps, NE
210 bu/ac predicted
60 counties · 19 rising
171bu/ac
USDA 2024: 162
XGB 164 · KNN 178
Top county: Grant, WI
197 bu/ac predicted
59 counties · 33 rising
166bu/ac
USDA 2024: 175
XGB 158 · KNN 173
Top county: Atchison, MO
183 bu/ac predicted
53 counties · 8 rising
154bu/ac
USDA 2024: 131
XGB 146 · KNN 163
Top county: Delta, CO
206 bu/ac predicted
18 counties · 13 rising
Colorado range reflects irrigated (Delta 206) vs dryland (eastern plains 66–88) county variation — both are valid predictions
2025 vs 2024 USDA — State Comparison
Model state-mean vs USDA 2024 final estimate · bu/acre
2025 Yield Predictions — County Level
263 countiesPredicted corn yield with 90% CI · XGBoost model8 · sorted by forecast
| # | County | State | Predicted | 90% CI | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phelps, NE | Nebraska | 210 bu/ac | 198–222 | ↑ Rising |
| 2 | Hamilton, NE | Nebraska | 207 bu/ac | 194–220 | — Stable |
| 3 | Delta, CO | Colorado | 206 bu/ac | 193–218 | ↑ Rising |
| 4 | Brown, NE | Nebraska | 206 bu/ac | 194–218 | — Stable |
| 5 | Adams, NE | Nebraska | 205 bu/ac | 192–217 | — Stable |
| 6 | Kearney, NE | Nebraska | 205 bu/ac | 192–217 | ↑ Rising |
| 7 | York, NE | Nebraska | 204 bu/ac | 192–216 | — Stable |
| 8 | Dawson, NE | Nebraska | 200 bu/ac | 188–213 | — Stable |
| 9 | Hall, NE | Nebraska | 199 bu/ac | 186–211 | — Stable |
| 10 | Yuma, CO | Colorado | 197 bu/ac | 185–210 | ↑ Rising |